Posted by u/ConflictedHairyGuy
What's the point of a 401k with earth-shattering economic disruption around the corner?
I've been investing in retirement like a "responsible" adult, but it's leaving a bad taste in my mind. Tax-advantaged funds sound smart, but I can't help struggle with the notion that I am locking away my money for decades (I'm in my early 30's) with no recourse while the economy fundamentally changes in the next 30 years. I do not want to be penalized because our elites are tethered to a 20th century model of retirement. If we hit 25-50% white-collar unemployment because of you-know-what, and the S&P has a huge drawdown, do you think the government will relax rules related to early withdrawal penalties? If everyone needs their money right now because of an economic earthquake, how could our retirement model survive? It seems like there will be larger things at stake and the very notion of retirement could be fundamentally altered forever. (not to mention the economic realities of longer lifespans, lower birthrates, and population shifts) With those things in mind, do you think it's smart to save for retirement, knowing that you locking away your funds for many years while we head into certain disruption? And will our economic leaders change the rules to adapt? EDIT: I see a lot of people here talking about past drawdowns like they are somehow indicative of what is to come. Past returns do not equal future performance. We are literally talking about a technology that will be smarter than humanity, on the scale of the Industrial Revolution, being brought into the world at a breakneck speed by stakeholders who do not care about its societal implications. Even if it takes 20 years to reach AGI - that is still fully within the working years of millennial, Gen Z, and all generations to come. Couple that with a retirement model that makes you wait until an age arbitrarily considered old in the latter half of the 20th century to take your money out without a penalty. Where's the logic in this? Retirement will not exist when we hit true AGI. We will have larger problems, sure, but the notion that you will be able to have sustained employment until the last quarter of your live and then live on your earnings afterwards is ludicrous. If economic model fundamentally changes, this will have to change. Saving is necessary and we have no alternative right now than the retirement framework that currently exists. But we should not be wedded to a model that was relevant for an economic age that will probably be leaving us in the near future.
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