I don’t buy the whole “AI will cause a blue collar boom” idea

I keep seeing people say that AI is going to wipe out white collar jobs and everyone will just move into trades and suddenly blue collar work will be booming. But that doesn’t really make sense to me. The amount of physical work that actually needs doing doesn’t suddenly increase just because office jobs disappear. Houses don’t suddenly need more plumbers, electricians, builders, mechanics etc just because fewer people work behind a desk. What seems more likely is a lot of people losing their current jobs and then trying to retrain for trades. That just means way more people competing for the same amount of work. And when you have more workers than jobs, prices drop. So instead of some massive blue collar boom you could easily end up with the opposite. Too many people entering trades, more competition, and wages getting pushed down. There’s another issue too. If AI is replacing jobs and lowering wages across the economy, people will also have less money to spend. When money gets tight, people stop doing renovations, delay repairs, don’t hire trades unless they absolutely have to. So you could end up with more tradespeople competing for work at the same time customers have less money to pay them. I’m not saying trades disappear or anything, skilled work will always exist. I just don’t think the “everyone will go into trades and everything will be fine” argument holds up when you actually think about supply and demand. Curious what people think.